NSW/ACT Notebook: Preview Round 16

Coming off a bruising 46-point loss at the hands of the Sydney Swans last week, the Giants will have their work cut out for them when they face the momentum carrying Crows.

Last week the Crows pulled off a win that no one expected against then then ladder leaders, and main rivals Port Adelaide. This weekend they will be hoping to build themselves a nest in the top eight with a percentage-boosting win over the Giants. Unfortunately for GWS, history between the two clubs would predict a convincing win for the Crows on Saturday as they currently hold a four to zero win-loss record against the Giants, with an average 91-point margin.

Teamwise, the Giants have included Toby Greene in their squad as he returns from a club imposed five-week suspension. Picking up 40 possessions and a goal in the UWS Giants’ 43-point victory over the Swans Reserves last week in the NEAFL, Greene comes in alongside Tom Scully and Zac Williams.

Following his bone-rattling crunch with the knee of Kurt Tippett in Round 15, Heath Shaw will miss the game due to concussion precautions, while Nathan Wilson and Josh Hunt have both been omitted from the side.

Adelaide have made extensive changes since their Round 15 team including the sitting out of New South Welshman, Aiden Riley who is experiencing body soreness. Ben Rutten, who has now announced his retirement at the end of the year has also been named as wells as Ricky Henderson who will play his first game of the year following pre-season surgery.  

Statistically, the Crows will need to be wary of the Giants’ clearance rate as they are currently ranked first in the league to the Crows eighth (GWS 41.9 – Adelaide 38.5).

Average disposals highly favour Adelaide heading into this Round 16 clash (Adelaide 370 – GWS 354), however as Shane Mumford continues to dominate the competition, the Giants are seen to average 11 more hit-outs per game than their Saturday opponents (GWS 48 – Adelaide 37).

With Jonathon Patton finding some playing consistency, GWS fans will be hoping that the Giants can rectify their inside 50 record (GWS 50 – Adelaide 55) with some strong marking up front.

The Giants will have fond memories of their last home game and will be looking to replicate another shock loss on Saturday afternoon, keeping their 2014 Spotless Stadium win-loss record in positive territory.

West Coast Eagles vs. Sydney Swans
(6-8, 11th) vs. (11-3, 3rd)

While many teams make the long trip to Patersons Stadium with a poor away record, the Sydney Swans may as well paint the walls of the ground red and white as they return to face West Coast on Sunday.

Holding a dominant seven game winning streak over the Western Australian’s, the Swans will be looking to extend on their Patersons Stadium statistics which indicate four wins from the last five games played in Perth (we won’t discuss last year’s Preliminary Final against Fremantle).  

Currently on a 10-game winning streak of their own, Sydney go into this game heavy favourites as the Eagles have failed to gain any consistency throughout the year.

Following injuries and retirements in their backline, West Coast will surely struggle against the likes of Sydney heroes, Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett who kicked a bag of seven goals between them in Round 15.

Tom Derickx has been named in an extended Swans squad alongside Mike Pyke, perhaps in an effort to shut down the workhorse that is the West Coast ruckman, Nic Naitanui. With average hit-outs favouring the Eagles at 46 to 33 heading into this round, the Swans will need more than a big game out of their rucking talls.

If required in the final side, the Swans will blood another cygnet in George Hewett who has been named as an emergency at this stage. Gary Rohan has also been named in the yet to be finalised lineup.

For West Coast, Mitchell Brown is set to miss with an ankle injury while Jamie Bennell has been omitted from the struggling side.

The Eagles have also named an extended bench listing Jacob Brennan, Adam Carter, Jamie Cripps, Scott Lycett and Callum Sinclair as possible starters on Sunday afternoon.

Forgetting the disproportionate hit-out statistics, Sydney’s current 10-game winning streak has them leaps and bounds ahead in most areas of the game.

The Swans average 24 more disposals (382-358) and win the contested ball an average of nine more times per game (147-138) than the hometown team. Inside-50s are also unsurprisingly in favour of the Swans with Franklin and his men gaining six more forward entries per game (56-50) than the Eagles.
 
Sitting third on the ladder on percentage, the Swans will be hoping to continue their winning record at Patersons Stadium and then some in order to boost their percentage and gain a top-two spot as we head into the gritty end of the season.

AFL NSW/ACT News

Harry Cunningham (Turvey Park) has gained the Sydney Swans’ first 2014 Rising Star nomination following his promising performance against the GWS Giants in Round 15. Cunningham took a career high seven marks and had 17 disposals for the match.

Zac Williams (Narrandera) has been named in the GWS side to take on Adelaide at Spotless Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

Luke Breust (Temora) remains on a goal-kicking streak of 26 straight without scoring a behind. With the record currently at 29 goals held by legendary Sydney Swan Tony Lockett, Breust could make history this Friday as his Hawks take on the Kangaroos.